Wagner’s Law vs. Keynesian Hypothesis: Dynamic Impacts

Ciro Bazán*, Víctor Josué Álvarez-Quiroz, Yennyfer Morales Olivares

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations


This study analyzes the dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth in Peru for 1980Q1–2021Q4. We used quarterly time series of real GDP, public consumption expenditure, public expenditure, and the share of public expenditure to output. The variables were transformed into natural logarithms, wherein only the logarithm of public expenditure to output ratio is stationary and the others are non-stationary (Formula presented.). The study of stationary time series assesses whether Wagner’s law, the Keynesian hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, or the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the Peruvian case according to Granger causality. We found cointegration between real GDP and public expenditure, and public consumption expenditure and real GDP. Estimating error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models, we concluded that Wagner’s law and the Keynesian hypothesis are valid in the Peruvian case, expressed as dynamic processes that allow us to obtain short-run and long-run impacts, permitting the mutual sustainability of economic growth and public expenditure.

Original languageEnglish
Article number10431
JournalSustainability (Switzerland)
Issue number16
StatePublished - Aug 2022


  • Granger causality
  • Keynesian hypothesis
  • Wagner’s law
  • autoregressive distributed lag model
  • cointegration
  • economic growth
  • error correction model
  • public expenditure


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